"One of the mediums for books which I think is being underserved is audio books. Folk who won’t read a paper book or an e-book, for a variety of reasons–time being chief among them–often get most of their reading done with audio books. At the moment, the books which get translated into that format tend to be solely bestsellers. I think that’s something which could change, and prove profitable for audio publishers."

Louise Marley, award-winning author, Seattle, WA

"Physical books will remain near and dear to readers’ hearts — and publishers’. And authors’. That said, I see the biggest change due to electronic editions and the internet as a whole being to the relationship between author and reader. We’ve come a long way from the days of glimpsing celebrity authors at a distance. Look at Neil Gaiman, who invites the world of readers into much of his life. How far will this go? From a commercial side, there are TV shows whose success is due to writers who interact with viewers about content. Will readers come to expect not only information about their favorite authors, but input into upcoming novels? Will authors run or embrace this?"

Julie Czerneda, award-winning author, Orillia, Ontario, Canada

"For as long as I’ve been reading, there have worries about doom and the end of books. In the 1820’s, with the introduction of stereotype printing, the elite were horrified that as a result anybody was able to buy books. In 1983, I heard a talk by Christopher Cerf that hardbacks were getting too expensive to produce and would soon be replaced by trade paperbacks which no doubt echoed the laments in the 1940’s that the mass market paperback would ruin hardback sales. In 1979, I read essays about how the vertical consolidation of mass media would mean that any day now, there would only be 4 or 5 sources for all of our books, movies and TV shows; thus, the end of civilization as we knew it. By the early 1990’s, as the web began to take hold, the worries that soon nobody would publish real books because they would be online began to arise. Soon we had the first attempts at portable electronic book readers… which would also lead to the end of publishing as we know it.

Reading for pleasure is a rare genetic quirk that will lead people to read in whatever mode is convenient for them. I, for one, don’t think the new fangled eBooks, whether online or in an eBook, will catch on until the texts can easily and conveniently be read in Bed, on the Bus (plane, etc.), at the Beach (backyard, etc.) and in the Bathtub. The Four B test. Those are the locations most people read for pleasure. Until information no longer has to be parsed in symbolic character strings of words and paragraphs, we will continue to want to find that in a convenient manner. There will be the occasional economic disruptions as business cycles cycle and new methods of production and marketing are marketed.

In spite of efforts like Wal-Mart trying to reduce mass market paperbacks to only those titles per month they are willing to fit on their rack space or Amazon trying to only sell those self published books they printed, there will be an infrastructure providing needed reading matter that is edited, promoted and sold in easy to read containers for consumption by the 17% of the population that will admit to reading novels because they want to. I, for one, will continue to want to."

Willie Siros, owner of Adventures in Crime and Space, Austin, TX

"As the cost of production and the impact the existing system has on the environment become even more untenable than they already were, the mainstream publishing is slowly leaning toward a business model a number of independent presses have been using for a decade or more. On-demand printing, eBooks, the Espresso Book Machine and the increasing number of authors who aren’t willing to spend all their advances and royalties–and more–on marketing and promotion can’t help but lead to some significant restructuring."

Elizabeth K. Burton, writer, editor and partner of Zumaya Publications, Austin, TX

But it will be harder and harder for new authors to grab readers and make an impact. Sure, they can self-publish electronically at very little cost to themselves, but it will be very hard for them to gather any attention in an overcrowded market. More and more people WILL self-publish as the publishing houses conglomerate and become more risk-averse and publish fewer and fewer authors in fewer and fewer genres. But all those independent authors making their stories available through Lulu and Kindle will find it harder and harder to get the attention of the reader who is offered an ever more bewildering array of choices.

It will still be possible for someone new and fresh to catch the attention of the public. The next Stephenie Meyer and JK Rowling will benefit mightily from the social media that can turn a word-of-mouth campaign into an astonishing overnight success. And, because an electronic book can stay in print forever and not cost the author or the publisher anything, it will still be possible for small, overlooked books to slowly develop a following (the "long tail" you might have heard about). I just don’t think this will happen as often as aspiring writers would hope.

I think the printed book will become rarer and rarer. I don’t think it will happen in my lifetime, but I do think eventually books will only be available in electronic form or POD."

Sharon Shinn, award-winning author, St. Louis, Missouri